A hitchhiker’s guide to the U.S. current account problem

The United States has run a current account deficit for the past 20 years, and, as a consequence, foreigners now hold unprecedented financial claims on the United States. At some point, foreigners will become reluctant to hold these claims and will set into motion a series of corrective economic adjustments. This Economic Commentary describes the interaction between our current account deficits and the broader economy and explains the problem that continued deficits pose.Balance of payments ; Budget deficits

An introduction to the international implications of U.S. fiscal policy

A challenge to the commonly held belief that aggregate U.S. fiscal policy measures, especially the federal budget deficit, bear a simple and direct causal relationship with U.S. interest rates, exchange rates, and the trade balance, concluding that fiscal policies can--but need not--cause trade deficits.Budget deficits ; Foreign exchange rates ; Balance of trade

Exchange-market intervention: the channels of influence

A review of three channels through which central bank intervention could alter exchange rates, concluding that sterilized intervention is a very limited policy tool.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

Replacing the dollar with special drawing rights--will it work this time?

The head of China’s central bank is calling for countries to replace the U.S. dollar as an international reserve currency with something called SDRs. Created by the IMF way back in 1969 for that purpose, SDRs never caught on. While SDRs may be declared an official international reserve asset today, they are not likely to become the world’s key international currency anytime soon. In the meantime, countries in China’s current predicament--acquiring more dollars than they think prudent--could avoid such risks in the future by allowing their currencies to appreciate.Special drawing rights ; Bank of China

On the rotation of the earth, drunken sailors, and exchange rate policy

A growing number of observers seem to believe that official foreign exchange intervention offers a useful tool for managing the dollar’s descent. In particular situations, official transactions can sometimes produce temporary changes in exchange rates, but intervention does not permit countries to avoid or substantially modify trends in the movements of their exchange rates. At best, intervention is of very limited value.Foreign exchange administration ; Monetary policy

Do deficits matter?

An argument that despite ballooning federal debt levels, no proof exists that government budget deficits are related to interest rates or real exchange rates, and that the size and composition of the government's budget are at least as critical as the federal deficit in determining the nation's long-term economic growth.Budget deficits

Rising relative prices or inflation: why knowing the difference matters

Almost everyone uses the word inflation to refer to any increase in prices, but it ought to be reserved for a just one kind of price increase. True inflation has a different cause—and a different cure—than the price increases of goods and services caused by constantly changing supply and demand conditions. The Federal Reserve can and should act to control inflation, but when relative-price changes are putting pressure on businesses and consumers, the Fed can do little.Inflation (Finance) ; Consumer price indexes

A Mexican currency board?

A look at the pros and cons of replacing Mexico's central bank with a currency board, explaining that although a currency board would eliminate monetary policy discretion and help to restore faith in the peso's purchasing power, it would also prevent exchange-rate changes from aiding economic adjustments.Currency boards ; Mexico

International financial flows and the current business expansion

Since 1992, the United States has enjoyed sustained, rapid economic expansion characterized by rising labor force participation, booming net investment spending for information equipment and computer software, and strong productivity growth. Substantial foreign capital inflows have helped to finance the investment boom as well as a rise in private domestic consumption spending. This paper illustrates how capital inflows can be both a bane and a boon to economic growth.Capital movements ; Economic conditions - United States

The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader

U.S. exchange-market intervention has no apparent effect on market fundamentals but may influence expectations. If intervention can accurately forecast exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the Federal Reserve is trading can alter traders' prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that U.S. intervention has value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements will moderate but not that they will reverse.Foreign exchange - Law and legislation